Apr 20 2017

“Imagination is the only weapon in the war against reality.” ― Lewis Carroll, Alice in Wonderland

In 2050 we can visualize a large population enjoying an amazing quality of life with access to such services and privileges as are not accessible even to the urban middle class of today. Higher income levels, universal access to quality education, healthcare, safe drinking water and sanitation services shall characterize rural India in 2050. Women’s participation levels in India’s workforce shall be rivaling that of the men with all discrimination based on region, caste, community, ethnicity, gender, age and disabilities being minimized. The optimism for future stems not only owing to the rate at which the technology is evolving and is being adopted by the masses but also owing to the changing attitudes of the new generation towards “holistic development for all”.

Demographically a large proportion of population may migrate to urban India by 2050; however about 850 million people will continue to reside in rural India.

Despite a view that India is rapidly urbanizing, it will have just half of its population in cities even in 2050. By 2050, India will still be one of the least urbanized countries in the world. It’s likely that the simplicity of life, improvement of income levels and availability of basic services may significantly improve the quality of rural life in India.

Farm and non-farm rural households are likely to improve their incomes and reduce their vulnerabilities significantly by 2050.

The per capita income for urban India in 2011-12 was INR 1, 01,313, whereas for rural India it was only INR 40,772.

However in 2050 rural India is likely to have significantly higher incomes. This will largely be driven by a quantum leap in the cropping intensity, riding on almost all the arable land coming under irrigation. For instance, the gross irrigated area is expected to increase from 76 million hectare in 2000 to 117 million hectares by 2050. Besides, the vulnerabilities arising out of climate change will have become a non-issue with universalization of crop insurance across rural India. The core value chains will have completely integrated vertically, performing at the highest level of efficiency, aided by world class infrastructure, resulting in smooth access to markets. Non-farming rural households too shall be experiencing buoyancy in their incomes aided by a burgeoning demand for services and non-farm goods. The rural population shall have access to social security owing to the entire workforce being a part of the formal sector and high level of financial inclusion among the rural population leading to access to life insurance, health insurance, insurance cover against accidents, pension services and credit for both consumption and production purposes. The expected increase in per capita income for India to over INR 26 lakhs (USD 40,000) will also reflect in rural incomes.