Feb 23 2017

Digitization and exponential technologies like the Internet of things, big data, blockchain, artificial intelligence, 3D printing, machine learning, and robotics not only disrupt the ways we design, produce, manage and maintain products and services at a fast pace, but also the way we will work in the future. IBM’s Watson technology is already complementing human decision-making in fields such as cancer diagnostics through artificial intelligence. So will Watson and Co replace human labor in 2050? Global thought leaders like Stephen Hawking are warning already that the very technology that has been an enabler for mankind in the past, has the potential to destroy the world, as increasing automation is going to decimate middle class jobs, worsening inequality and risking significant political upheaval.

While emerging technologies bring higher productivity and efficiencies, estimates already suggest that up to 45% of tasks people are paid to do every day could be automated in the future—with big impacts on emerging markets. China is acquiring 160.000 robots this year and a recent report by Citi and the Oxford Martin School shows that the Chinese market has already replaced the US as the largest market for industrial automation. In India, textile giant Raymond is planning to cut about 10,000 jobs in its manufacturing centers in the next three years, replacing them with robots. IT-Giant Infosys has already announced reducing jobs through automation. The future will see business without people, like the fast-food chain Eatsa that requires zero human interaction.

The ‘future of work’ is not only shaped by automation, but also by changing aspirations: Enabled by technology and driven by increasing entrepreneurialism, the idea of ‘employment’ is already changing: The current generation of millennials is increasingly looking for purpose and personal development. The rise of the ‘on demand’ economy gives more power to the individual: Estimates suggest that by 2020, 1 in 2 people in the US and UK will work in a freelance capacity. While routine tasks are expected to be increasingly completed by intelligent machines and technology, creativity, analytical skills and problem solving will be requirements of the job of the future.

Is the picture so gloom? Human history has shown that technology has not only improved working conditions and living standards, increased value creation and raised incomes, it also created life-changing innovations such as the steam engine, the conveyer belt, airplanes or the internet – and yet we fail to predict its implications. “The global demand for cars will not exceed 1 million, one reason being the shortage of drivers,” estimated Gottlieb Daimler in 1901. In the same year, Wilbur Wright, a pioneer in aviation, estimated: “It will not be possible for humankind in the next fifty years to take-off in a metal plane.” The rest is history. We are certain that the future of work is changing, but the effects will not only be negative. These shifts will play out differently in India – and we need to join forces to prepare and make it inclusive.